Medical cost growth will rise to highest level in 13 years; a renewed call to action to address affordability
SOURCE: PWC
Commercial health care spending growth is estimated to grow to its highest level in 13 years, according to PwC’s newest research into annual medical cost trend. PwC’s Health Research Institute (HRI) is projecting an 8% year-on-year medical cost trend in 2025 for the Group market and 7.5% for the Individual market. This near-record trend is driven by inflationary pressure, prescription drug spending and behavioral health utilization.
HRI is also restating the 2023 and 2024 medical cost trends as higher than previously reported based on the input of health plans we surveyed and their trend experience. This unfavorable trend reflects higher than expected utilization of glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) drugs as well as higher acuity (higher levels of care) inpatient and outpatient utilization. Inpatient and outpatient utilization were driven by demand from care deferred since the pandemic, which was met by newly created capacity as sites of care shifted to outpatient, professional and ambulatory care settings.
PwC is projecting an 8% year-on-year medical cost trend in 2025 for the Group market and 7.5% for the Individual market, driven by inflationary pressure, prescription drug spending and behavioral health utilization.
The same inflationary pressure the healthcare industry has felt since 2022 is expected to persist into 2025, as providers look for margin growth and work to recoup rising operating expenses through health plan contracts. The costs of GLP-1 drugs are on a rising trajectory that impacts overall medical costs. Innovation in prescription drugs for chronic conditions and increasing use of behavioral health services are reaching a tipping point that will likely drive further cost inflation.
Meanwhile, cost deflators are not enough to offset cost inflators. The growing adoption of biosimilar medications may provide some relief, while many health plans are looking inward to find opportunities across business operations to generate additional cost savings. Today’s medical cost trend is an urgent call to action for healthcare organizations to rethink their strategies to manage the total cost of care more effectively – a challenge that is inextricably linked to the broader challenge of affordability, defined by the Affordable Care Act as the percentage of a member’s household income used for healthcare expenses.
CONTINUE READING HERE – Medical cost trend: Behind the numbers: PwC
