The Banner Cycle has predicted most major market downturns — Samuel Benner published it ~150 years ago in 1875
The Benner Cycle, a fascinating artifact of financial history, has been captivating investors and economists for over 150 years. It’s like the financial equivalent of a time capsule, predicting market movements with accuracy since its inception in 1875.
Samuel Benner was a farmer from the 1800s who wanted to understand how market cycles worked. In 1875, he published a book forecasting business and commodity prices. He identified years of panic, years of good times, and years of hard times.
As a prosperous Ohio Farmer, the 1873 market panic was a blow for Samual Benner, and it wiped him out. When trying to understand why this happened, Benner discovered the notion of market cycles.
As a farmer, Samuel knew that the seasonal cycles affected crops, which then affect supply and demand, which affects the price. Benner looked deeper into these cycles and found an 11-year cycle in corn and pig prices with peaks every 5/6 years. This matches the 11-year solar cycle. Benner figured that this solar cycle affects crop yield, affecting revenue, supply/demand, and price.
SOURCE: The Rational Investor
