By Brad O’Neill – The ICHRA Architect,ICHRA Pioneer aka The Wizard of ICHRA,Guru of Choice Benefits
Most brokers think the #RFP is an opportunity. It’s not. It’s the confirmation.
In an RFP with 50 brokers, the surface-level math suggests a 2% chance of winning—but that’s not how these processes actually play out. In reality, a large portion of participants are not serious contenders; many are submitting just to stay visible or check a box.
Once you filter those out, the true competitive field is usually closer to 10–15 firms, and even within that group, only 3–5 have a legitimate shot.
The incumbent often holds a 60–80% likelihood of retaining the business, a few well-positioned challengers may have a 10–25% chance, and everyone else falls below 5%.
For a cold entrant, the realistic odds are typically closer to 1–3%, meaning the number of participants matters far less than whether you were involved before the RFP was ever issued.
Looking at a recent wave of health & welfare RFP activity (large employers, municipalities, universities), you’ll see dozens of firms downloading the same opportunity—Gallagher, Lockton, IMA, Brown & Brown, regional players… everyone.
On paper, it looks competitive. In reality? The winner is often decided before the RFP is even released.
Here’s what typically happens:
• The incumbent retains ~60–80% of the time
• Known challengers might have a 20–30% shot
• Cold entrants? Usually sitting in the 5–15% range
And in many public sector cases, the RFP is simply a compliance exercise to validate a direction that’s already been formed.
So why do so many firms still chase these? Because it feels like pipeline.
But here’s the bigger question: Out of all those brokers… how many will even mention ICHRA?
Not many.
Most proposals still default to:
• Fully insured
• Level funded
• Self-funded
The same playbook. The same carriers. The same outcomes.
Meanwhile, employers are asking for:
• Cost control
• Flexibility
• Transparency
…and ICHRA directly addresses all three.
But it rarely even makes the proposal. That’s the gap.
If you’re issuing or advising on RFPs and want to actually evaluate ICHRA the right way reach out to me. We’ll help structure, respond, or support ICHRA-specific bids so it’s not an afterthought—it’s a real option.
The best brokers don’t just respond to RFPs. They bring solutions others aren’t even talking about.
