Health care reform has taken center stage this week and we expect headline news on this in the coming days. Yet, no one really knows what changes are to be proposed or what specific directions a national health care plan will take.
Our predictions include a two payer system; a government run system that will compete with private health care companies such as Aetna and Cigna. This arrangement will be problematic since a government run plan can mandate costs while a private health care company can only negotiate costs. Our second prediction is all health care costs will be taxable income to plan beneficiaries. Our third prediction is that the government will mandate expense ceilings for private health care plans as well as mandated target loss ratios. This will diminish the role, and the need for, independent insurance agents and brokers as well as damper financial interests of private payers such as United HealthCare, Aetna and their respective share holders. In time, the private sector health care payers will fade away and a one payer natiional health plan will become reality.